New Delhi / Kolkata, April 14 (BNP): The India Meteorological Department (IMD), in its first long-range forecast issued on April 13, 2026, has indicated that India’s primary rainfall season—the South West Monsoon (SWM)—is likely to be below normal or deficient in 2026.
According to IMD, the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is expected to be around 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA), which translates to approximately 800 mm, with a model error margin of ±5%. The LPA is based on rainfall data from 1971–2020, averaging about 868.6 mm.
Key Probabilistic Outlook
The IMD has also outlined the distribution of probabilities for the 2026 monsoon season:
35% chance of deficient rainfall (below 90% of LPA) — significantly higher than the climatological probability of 16%
31% chance of below-normal rainfall (90–95% of LPA)
27% chance of normal rainfall (96–104% of LPA)
6% chance of above-normal rainfall
1% chance of excess rainfall
Based on these projections, the likelihood of below-normal or deficient rainfall conditions is notably higher than the long-term average, signaling a potential stress year for monsoon-dependent sectors.
Climatic Drivers Behind the Forecast
The IMD has identified key large-scale climate drivers influencing the 2026 monsoon outlook, including:
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)
Eurasian snow cover extent
Currently, weak La Niña conditions are prevailing over the Equatorial Pacific. However, IMD expects a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions between April and June, followed by the possible development of El Niño conditions during the monsoon season.
El Niño conditions are generally associated with weakened monsoon circulation and reduced rainfall over the Indian subcontinent, although historical records indicate that outcomes can vary depending on the interaction of other ocean-atmospheric factors.
Impact Concerns
The forecast has raised concern for India’s agriculture sector, particularly as nearly 60% of farmers depend directly on monsoon rainfall for Kharif cultivation.
A weak monsoon, if realized, could:
Disrupt Kharif sowing and yield prospects
Impact rural incomes and agricultural productivity
Increase dependence on irrigation and groundwater resources
Add pressure on food prices and supply chains
This outlook comes at a challenging time, following reported crop losses in several regions due to hailstorms and flooding during the 2026 pre-monsoon season, compounding risks for the agricultural economy.
Advisory and Preparedness
The IMD has urged stakeholders, including central and state governments, to strengthen preparedness measures, including:
Efficient water resource management
Crop contingency planning
Strengthening irrigation support systems
Monitoring of evolving ENSO and IOD conditions throughout the season
The IMD emphasized that while long-range forecasts provide early guidance, monsoon variability remains dynamic and subject to intra-seasonal changes.
