Harsha Engineers International (HARSHA IN)
Rating: ACCUMULATE | CMP: Rs 374 | TP: Rs398
Q4FY25 Result Update
Muted quarter amid persistent pain in Romania
Quick Pointers:
- India Engineering domestic/export mix stood at 60%/40% (vs 47%/53% YoY).
- Management has guided for low teens revenue growth of India Engineering while consolidated revenue is expected to grow at high single digit in FY26.
We revise our FY26/27E EPS estimates by -12.7%/-19.8% factoring in continued slowdown in Romania. Harsha Engineers International (HARSHA) reported a soft quarter with a 2.0% YoY revenue decline and a sharp 491bps YoY EBITDA margin contraction to 9.4%, mainly due to bad debts in the Solar EPC segment. Domestic Engineering demand remains resilient aided by inventory restocking and early signs of revival in industrial demand, though key export markets, including Europe and the USA, continue to experience weakness due to global demand slowdown. Pain persists in Romania due to lower offtake by customers while China’s performance remained satisfactory. Amid geopolitical and demand uncertainty in global markets, management guides for low teens revenue growth in India Engineering business driven by domestic strength while the consolidated business is expected to grow at a high single digit in FY26.
We believe that the continued pain in Romania may impact mid-term consolidated financial performance of the company however, HARSHA’s long-term outlook remains positive given its 1) market leadership in bearing cages, 2) greenfield capacity expansion plans, and 3) multiple levers for growth viz. i) bearing cage outsourcing, ii) capex by global bearing players in India and iii) growing demand for bronze bushings. The stock is currently trading at a P/E of 23.5x/19.7x on FY26/27E earnings. We maintain ‘Accumulate’ rating with a revised TP of Rs398 (Rs440 earlier), valuing the company at a PE of 21x Mar’27E (21x Sep’26E).
Strong domestic performance partly offset by weaker export markets: Consolidated revenue declined by 2.0% YoY to Rs3.7bn (Ple: Rs3.5bn). Consolidated Engineering revenue rose 3.0% YoY to Rs3.3bn. Meanwhile, Solar EPC sales declined by 28.6% YoY to Rs427mn. Gross margin expanded by 180bps YoY to 45.9% (PLe: 46.3%).EBITDA fell 35.5% YoY to Rs352mn (PLe: Rs440mn) while EBITDA margin declined by 491bps YoY to 9.4% (PLe: 12.5%) primarily due to higher operating expenses and higher bad debts (Rs200mn vs Rs23mn in Q4FY24).Adj. EBITDA (ex-bad debts) fell 3.0% YoY to Rs552mn with EBITDA margin remaining flattish at 14.8%. Consolidated Engineering EBITDA margin declined to 11.6% (vs 18.9% in Q4FY24). Solar EPC EBITDA margin turned negative to -46.5% as it included Rs200mn of bad debts. [Note: Segmental EBITDA includes other income]. Company reported loss after tax of Rs24mn (vs profit of Rs368mn YoY) while the adj. loss after tax was Rs116mn (PLe: profit of Rs278mn) due to weaker operating performance and higher effective tax rate (133.2% vs 25.7% YoY)
Margin decline across segments led to lower consolidated margins: Consol. Engineering revenue rose 3.0% YoY to Rs3.3bn within which, domestic sales rose ~32% to Rs1.5bn while exports from India declined 20.0% YoY to Rs1.0bn and foreign subsidiaries sales also declined ~2% to Rs799mn. Solar EPC sales declined 28.6% YoY to Rs427mn. Consol. Engineering EBITDA margin rose to 20.0% (vs 18.9% in Q4FY24) as India Engineering margin improved by 183bps YoY to 26.2% while foreign subsidiaries margin came in at 0.5% (vs 2.8% in Q4FY24). Solar EPC EBITDA margin declined to 0.6% (vs 2.8% in Q4FY24).
Larsen & Toubro (LT IN)
Rating: BUY | CMP: Rs 3,324 | TP: Rs4,004
Q4FY25 Result Update
Healthy Q4; positioned for growth amid strategic wins
Quick Pointers:
- Strong order prospects worth Rs19.0trn for FY26 (vs Rs12.1trn in FY25) are primarily driven by Hydrocarbon, CarbonLite and Green & Clean energy.
- Management guided for a ~10% order intake growth and ~15% revenue growth with P&M margin of ~8.5% in FY26.
Larsen & Toubro (L&T) reported consol. revenue growth of 10.9% YoY, while EBITDA margin improved 24bps YoY to 11.0%. L&T continues to exhibit strong growth prospects across key segments such as Hydrocarbon, Heavy Civil, Transmission & Distribution, and Renewable Energy, both in domestic and international markets. Notably, its recent ultra-mega order from Qatar Energy underscores its growing presence in the Middle East. Furthermore, L&T’s strategic expansion into emerging sectors like semiconductors, data centers, and green hydrogen is expected to drive long-term growth. Operationally, the net working capital (NWC) to sales ratio improved to ~11% in FY25 (vs ~12% in FY24), supported by better gross working capital management and strong collections. While geopolitical instability and supply chain disruptions warrant a measured approach, the management’s FY26 guidance of ~10% order intake growth, ~15% revenue growth, and P&M margins of ~8.5% reflects confidence in the company’s robust execution capabilities and resilient business model.
We believe L&T is well-placed to benefit in the long-run owing to 1) strong international prospects led by Middle East, 2) healthy domestic pipeline on the back of public-driven capex and uptick in private capex, and 3) improving profitability in development projects, and 4) penetration in newer areas such as green energy, electrolyzers, semiconductors, data centers, etc. The stock is currently trading at a P/E of 24.6x/19.7x on FY26/27E earnings. We maintain ‘Buy’ rating and roll forward to Mar’27 with a revised SoTP-derived TP of Rs4,004 (Rs3,920 earlier), valuing the core business at a P/E of 25x Mar’27E (25x Sep’26 earlier).
Healthy execution in both domestic and international business drives growth: Consolidated revenue rose 10.9% YoY to Rs743.9bn (PLe: Rs783.4bn) driven by healthy execution in domestic business (+11.9% YoY to Rs416.3bn), particularly in Energy projects and Hi-Tech Manufacturing. Meanwhile, international revenue inched up by 9.7% YoY to Rs327.6bn. EBITDA grew 13.4% YoY to Rs82.0bn (PLe: Rs84.3bn). EBITDA margin improved by 24bps YoY at 11.0% (PLe: 10.8%; consensus: 10.9%), led by gross margin improvement of 57bps YoY to 34.0%. Adj. PAT rose 16.7% YoY to Rs50.2bn (PLe: Rs48.6bn;) aided by healthy revenue growth, higher other income (up 9.0% YoY to Rs11.4bn) and lower interest costs (down 19.5% YoY to Rs7.5bn).
Strong order book of Rs5.8trn with robust inflows: Consolidated order inflows came in at Rs896.1bn, up 24.2% YoY aided by receipt of ultra-mega order in Hydrocarbon business. Domestic/International order intake mix stood at 30%/70%. Order book stands at ~Rs5.8trn (2.3x TTM revenue), up 21.7% YoY, with domestic/international mix of 30%/70%.
Swarnendu Bhushan
Co Head of Research, PL Capital
Aarti Industries (ARTO IN)
Rating: REDUCE | CMP: Rs 449 | TP: Rs394
Q4FY25 Result Update
Agrochem continues to remain soft
Quick Pointers:
- Non-Energy Business and energy business saw 14% and 21% increase in volumes sequentially
- Capex for FY26 to be around Rs10bn, of which 1.5-2bn will be maintenance while rest will be for new projects
ARTO reported revenue of Rs19.5bn reflecting a 6% sequential increase, driven primarily by higher volumes in the dyes, pigments, polymer additives, and energy segment. However, the agrochemical business continues to face challenges. The energy segment, which has the highest contribution to revenue, saw a 21% sequential volume increase, supported by widening in customer base and geographical outreach, however pricing pressure led to lower than historical margins. Management has guided for FY28 EBITDA in the range of Rs18–22bn, implying a 30% CAGR over the next three years to be driven by contributions from recently commissioned projects and ongoing capex at Zone 4.
While we expect moderate volume growth in dyes, pigments, and polymer-related products, the agrochemical segment is likely to remain weak in the near term. Additionally, MMA continues to struggle amid soft realizations and rising competition from both Indian and Chinese players. The stock trades at 27x FY27E P/E. We maintain a Reduce rating, valuing it at 24x FY27E EPS, and arrive at a target price of Rs394.
- Revenue increased by 6% sequentially: Consolidated net revenue stood at Rs19.5bn (10% YoY/ 6% QoQ) (PLe: Rs18.6bn, Consensus: Rs19bn), reported revenue was 4.3% higher than our estimates. Sequential revenue growth was driven by volumes driven by 14% and 21% increase in volumes of non-energy and energy business respectively. FY25 revenue was up by 14% to Rs72.7bn.
- EBITDAM declined 220 bps YoY: EBITDA stood at Rs2.7bn, down 5% YoY but increased 14% QoQ (vs Rs2.8bn in Q4FY24 and Rs2.4bn in Q3FY25). EBITDA margin decreased to 13.8% in Q4FY25, from 16% in Q4FY24 but improved slightly from 12.8% in Q3FY25, due to decreased raw material cost. Reported PAT declined 28% YoY but increased QoQ by 102% largely due to decrease in interest charges. The tax rate remained negative and is expected to be a lower single digit in FY26.
- Key concall takeaways: (1) Volume increased across end applications of Dyes, Pigments, Polymer Additives, while Agrochemicals continued to remain soft. (2) Overcapacity in China continues to remain concern for agrochemical intermediates. (3) MMA which was concentrated in the middle east before has increasingly been shipped to USA and other geographies. (4) Overall mix impact of US tariffs for Aarti products, MMA is not part of the exempt list for tariffs. (5) Export: Domestic mix for Q4FY25 was 55:45, with absolute exports standing at Rs12.4bn. (6) A large part of volume growth in FY26 will come from existing assets, zone 4 capex’s commercialization in FY26 will add significant volumes from FY27. (7) Guidance: EBITDA of Rs 1.8-2.2 bn, Debt/EBITDA <2.5x, ROCE >15%, FY26 tax mid-single digit, depreciation of Rs 6-6.2 bn by FY28. (8) NCB: large customers are increasing capacity; it has application in pharma. (9) DCB utilization to be maintained in FY26. (10) Nitrotoluene and Ethylation utilization are expected to have higher utilization compared to FY25.
Jinesh Joshi,
Research Analyst, PL Capital
Zee Entertainment Enterprises (Z IN)
Rating: BUY | CMP: Rs111 | TP: Rs137
Q4FY25 Result Update
Ad-revenue recovery key to re-rating
Quick Pointers:
- Domestic ad-revenue declines 27.0% YoY to Rs7,786mn.
- ZEE5’s EBITDA loss of Rs753mn is at an all-time low.
We increase our EPS estimates by 6%/2% for FY26E/FY27E and upgrade our rating to BUY (earlier HOLD) with a TP of Rs137 as we revise our target multiple to 11x (earlier 10x) amid sustained improvement in operating performance since last 4 quarters. Despite a weak ad-environment, ZEEL reported better than expected performance with EBITDA margin of 13.1% (PLe 12.5%) led by cost optimization efforts and narrowing losses in ZEE5. In FY25, ZEEL’s content and employee cost was down 10.4% and 9.0% respectively while operating loss in ZEE5 almost halved leading to 390 bps expansion in EBITDA margin. While this is commendable, we believe true operating leverage benefit of the ongoing cost optimization exercise is overshadowed by a weak ad-environment. Assuming a modest 8.0% CAGR in ad-revenue on a low base of FY25 is expected to result in 440bps expansion in EBITDA margin over next 2 years given the cost reset. Backed by sharp earnings recovery and attractive valuations (10.4x/8.9x our FY26E/FY27E EPS) we upgrade the stock to a BUY with a TP of Rs137 (11x FY27E EPS).
Top line remained flat YoY: Revenue was flat at Rs21,841mn (PLe Rs20,874mn). Domestic ad-revenue declined 27.0% YoY to Rs7,786mn, primarily due to weak macro backdrop, postponement of Zee Cine Awards, packed sports calendar and higher base in 4QFY24. However, total subscription revenues increased 3.9% YoY to Rs9,865mn.
EBITDA margin stood at 13.1%: EBITDA increased 35.6% YoY to Rs2,852mn (PLe Rs2,612mn, CE Rs2,801mn) with a margin of 13.1% (PLe 12.5%). EBITDA was better than our expectations on account of narrowing losses in ZEE5, and lower than expected other expenses, which came in at Rs870mn (PLe Rs1,287mn). Reported PAT stood at Rs1,886mn with a margin of 8.6%. Adjusting for a fair value gain of Rs125mn on financial instruments, adjusted PAT increased 342.4% YoY to Rs1,761mn (PLe Rs1,343mn, CE Rs1,655mn). The PAT outperformance was led by a lower-than-expected tax rate and other expenses.
ZEE5’s revenue increased 15.8% YoY: ZEE5’s revenue increased by 15.8% YoY to Rs2,747mn aided by syndication revenue. 16 new shows/movies were launched including 4 originals in 4QFY25 and EBITDA loss declined to Rs753mn.
Con-call highlights: 1) Ad-revenue will be supported in FY26E driven by Zee Anmol’s re-entry into the FTA segment. 2) ZEE5’s EBITDA loss was at an all-time low of Rs753mn supported by syndication gains. However, even after excluding syndication revenue, ZEE5’s revenue and operating performance improved sequentially in 4QFY25. 3) 20 movies were released in FY25, with 18 to 21 films slated for release in FY26E. 4) Other sales and services grew 226.4% YoY, driven by a higher number of movie releases and increased syndication revenue. 5) EBITDA margin target of 18-20% remains intact for FY26E. 6) Other expenses were lower at Rs870mn in 4QFY25, due to one-off recoveries, including reversal of provisions related to bad debts. 7) The US contributes only a small portion to overall business of ZEE studios, so any potential impact from Trump tariffs on non-US films would be negligible. 8) Cash and treasury investments rose to Rs24,064mn in 4QFY25.
Amnish Aggarwal
Director, PL Capital
Titan Company (TTAN IN)
Rating: BUY | CMP: Rs 3,369 | TP: Rs3,752
Q4FY25 Result Update
Demand outlook positive, global volatility a risk
Quick Pointers:
- Sub Rs50,000 and studded jewelry impacted due to rising gold prices.
- Management guided for 11-11.5% EBIT margin with opening 45-50 stores for FY26
TTAN reported a robust 4Q led by 1) value growth leg by 30-40% higher gold prices 2) 330bps margin gain in watches and 3) 20bps higher margins in jewellery enabled by operating leverage and hedging gains. 1H26 outlook remains positive given low vase due to elections and no marriage days. Higher gold prices are impacting demand however consumers are shifting to lighter jewellery and value growth remains strong. Gold on lease charges are stabilizing and the gap in only 70bps now, TTAN will gain from higher gold prices and margin requirements given strong balance sheet than competitors.
We raise FY26/27 EPS by 0.4/4.2% respectively and 22.7% PAT CAGR over FY25-27. We assign SOTP based target price of Rs3752 (Rs3695 earlier). Retan BUY.
Standalone Revenues (ex of Bullion) grew by 23.3% YoY to Rs135bn (PLe: Rs128.2bn); with Jewelry/ Watches/ Eyewear growing by 20%/ 20%/ 16%. Gross margins increased by 49bps YoY to 21.7%. EBITDA grew by 30% YoY to Rs14.4bn Margins grew by 82bps YoY to 10.7% (PLe:10.4%). Adj. PAT at Rs8.7bn was higher than our estimates of Rs8.5bn due to higher sales.
Jewellery revenues grew by 19.5% YoY to Rs121bn led by higher gold prices. EBIT grew by 22.2% YoY to Rs13.3bn; margins increased by 20bps YoY to 11.%. Bullion sales were nil 8.6bn 4Q. Studded ratio was at 30% down 3pc YoY. Tanishq added 4 stores, taking the total count to 501 stores. The relatively higher growth in gold jewellery and gold coins had an impact on the product mix impacting margins, however hedging gains offset any impact. 1Q trends remain favorable, although rising gold prices can provide volatility in demand in the near term.
Watches and Wearables revenues grew by 19.8% YoY to Rs11.2bn driven by 18% robust growth in analog watches; EBIT grew by 66% YoY to Rs1.3bn; margins expanded by 330bps YoY to 11.8%. Premium brands continued their strong performance with international brands growing at double digit growth. Fastrack topped the growth chart at 44% YoY, followed by 25%YoY in Sonata. Watches gave a healthy performance with a 330bps expansion in margin YoY.
Eyewear grew 15.7% YoY to Rs1.9bn; EBIT grew by 150% YoY to Rs200mn; margins expanded by 560bps YoY to 10.4%. Closed 11 stores (net) in 4Q25, reached total count to 891 stores. Frames and Lenses grew in low-double digits with sunglasses sales growth outpacing others by 52%YoY. International brands registered a strong growth of 47% YoY while house brands saw 7% growth in the same period.
Emerging business sales grew 5.2%; losses increased to Rs370mn: Fragrances grew by 26% YoY led by high double digits growth in SKINN and Fastrack. Women handbags clocked 10% YoY led by new store openings, TTAN opened 4 IRTH stores. Taneira sales were down by 4% YoY. During the quarter SKINN piloted its first experiential store in Seawoods, Mumbai.
Key Concall Highlights: 1) Overall buying sentiment remained muted amidst rising gold prices especially in sub Rs50,000 jewelry. 2) Consumer are opting for lower carat jewelry (9k-18k) to remain under budget they are scaling down in product complexity and lower making charges in higher price bands. 3) Growing traction in smaller solitaire sizes; large solitaire buyers are cautious and prefer gold over diamond as investment.4) Gross margins impacted due to product mix shift. However, the hedging gain due to forward contract offset the impact. 5) LGD’s are seeing an increase in production due to which prices are continuously falling 6) The company may need to make more capital investments in inventory if gold prices continue to rise. 7) wholesale prices of rough diamonds, especially in the higher carat edge segment, have increased, possibly due to Chinese demand. 8) TTAN guided for opening 45-50 store in FY26 with additional 50-60 stores to go under renovation. 9) TTAN has maintained its guidance for an 11% to 11.5% margin but does not expect any upside due to uncertainty around gold prices and other future uncertainties. 10) TTAN outlook for jewellery is bullish, with a commitment to driving healthy double digit (15-20%) for FY26 led by healthy new buyer growth. 11) The company’s financing cost is impacted by gold prices, as the same quantity of gold is now 30%-40% more expensive, and they have to pay interest on that increased amount
Asian Paints (APNT IN)
Rating: REDUCE | CMP: Rs 2,303 | TP: Rs2,142
Q4FY25 Result Update
Growth outlook remains hazy
Quick Pointers:
- 4Q decorative volumes up 1.8%, outlook cautious for next couple of quarters, more so in urban India. Projects and Govt business have a positive outlook.
- APNT aims for single digit value growth, with 18-20% EBITDA margins in FY26
APNT has given a cautious outlook for FY26 with single digit topline growth and EBIDTA margins in the band of 18-20%. Demand scenario has been tepid and organized decorative demand has seen a decline in FY25. Rural and tier3/4 demand is better than urban India, however normal monsoons benefit of tax cuts and benign inflation. The competitive intensity remains high in decorative paints; however current discounts and the pricing environment are unsustainable for new entrants. We believe the acquisition of decorative business of AKZO Nobel by a strong player will further add to competition.
Given that realization is negative and demand recovery is gradually given competitive scenario, sales growth is likely to remain in low to mid-single digits. Bath, Kitchen and Home décor have been slow to scale up given slow demand and competitive environment. We estimate a CAGR of 4.9% in revenue and 6.4% in PAT over FY25-27. APNT trades at 48.4xFY27 EPS, which looks expensive given the tepid growth scenario. Retain reduce rating with target price of Rs2142 (45xFY27 EPS, 2094 based on DCF earlier).
Decorative volume grew by 1.8% amid muted demand conditions and downtrading. Revenues declined by 4.3% YoY to Rs83.6bn (PLe: Rs82.3bn). Gross margins expanded by 23bps YoY to 43.9%. EBITDA declined by 15.1% YoY to Rs14.4bn (PLe:Rs14.8bn) Margins contracted 219bps YoY to 17.2% (PLe:18%). Adj. PAT declined by 30.7% YoY to Rs8.8bn (PLe:Rs10.1bn). Standalone Revenues declined by 3.9% YoY to Rs71.9bn; Gross margins expanded by 53bps YoY to 45.2%; EBITDA margins contracted by 229bps YoY to 18.4%; Adj. PAT declined by 27.7% YoY to Rs8.7bn . Sub Sales declined 6.7% YoY; EBITDA declined 21.5% YoY.
Praveen Sahay
Research Analyst, PL Capital
Voltas (VOLT IN)
Rating: BUY | CMP: Rs 1,223 | TP: Rs1,516
Q4FY25 Result Update
Market share slips, outlook remains cautious
Quick Pointers:
- Volume growth of 36%/56% in UCP/Voltas Beko in FY25
- UCP EBIT margins expanded by 80bps to 10% in Q4FY25
We downward revise our FY26/FY27E earnings estimate by 6.6%/7.8% factoring slow demand for RAC, cost pressure for key components like compressors and copper tube, no price hikes and slow ramp up of Chennai plant. Voltas Ltd (VOLT) reported volume growth in line with the industry in UCP segment and anticipates demand recovery in upcoming quarters from extended summers and support from In Shop demonstrator. UCP EBIT margins expanded due to the better product mix in Industrial coolers and high energy efficient rated products. VOLT market share has declined slightly in RAC segment (YTD market share of 19% as on Mar’25 vs 19.5% as on Jun’24). Company has faced collection issues in its domestic project business and company is optimistic about the recovery in subsequent quarters. Voltas Beko saw volume growth of 56% FY25, with market share gain in refrigerators/washing machines/ Semi-Automatic Washing Machine at 5.3%/8.7%/15.3%. We estimate FY25-27E revenue/EBITDA/PAT CAGR of 15.7%/19.3%/20.8%. we revise SOTP-based TP to Rs1,516 (down from Rs1,593), implying PE of 41x FY27E earnings
Revenue up 13.4% and PAT at Rs2.4bn: Revenues grew by 13.4% YoY to Rs47.7bn (PLe: Rs50.9bn). Volume growth in the UCP segment was ~36% in FY25. Voltas Beko reported volume growth of ~56% in FY25. Gross margins expanded by 170bps YoY to 21.4% (PLe: 22.6%). EBITDA grew by 74.6% YoY to Rs3.3bn (PLe: Rs3.4bn). EBITDA margin expanded by 240bps YoY to 7.0% (PLe: 6.6%). UCP revenue grew by 17% YoY to Rs34.6bn and EBIT margin came in at 10% (+80bps YoY). EMPS revenue grew by 3.6% YoY to Rs11.4bn. The segment reported EBIT loss of Rs17mn vs loss of Rs1.1bn in Q4FY24. EPS revenue declined by 15.5% YoY to Rs1.3bn. EBIT declined by 28.7% YoY to Rs341mn, and margin contracted by 480bps YoY to 25.8%. PBT grew by 76.6% YoY to Rs3.8bn (PLe: Rs3.7bn). PAT grew by 107% to Rs2.4bn (PLe: Rs2.5bn). VOLT’s share of loss from JV and associates stood at Rs320mn.
ConCall Takeaways: 1) VOLT has maintained its leadership position in split and window air conditioners. It has a YTD market share of 19% as on Mar’25. 2) Voltbek reported volume growth of 56% YoY in FY25. 3) Voltas’s Rs3.9bn bank guarantees for a Qatar project remain unencashed amid ongoing legal proceedings; based on legal advice, the company sees strong grounds to defend claims and has made no further provisions. 4) EMPS order book for the project business reached Rs65bn. 5) Air cooler YTD Mar’25 market share at 8.5% securing a position among the top three brands. 6) VOLT has a YTD Feb’25 market share of 5.3%/8.7%/15.3% in refrigerators/washing machines/Semi-Automatic Washing Machine. 7) Company aims to localize its refrigerator manufacturing to strengthen its market presence in India. 8) Company faced challenges in secondary and tertiary sales due to delayed summer and unseasonal rains, which adversely impacted its market share and expects to improve by H1FY26. 9) Company has recommended a final dividend of Rs 7 per share.